Monday, April 13, 2020

Covid 19 when will it end ?

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is no universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide from 1918-1919.  In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html )
I recall this sliver of information to draw attention to the last time a global pandemic struck. To contrast and compare; at the time of this writing Covid19 cases worldwide topped 1.8 million on Sunday and the global death toll rose above 110,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. U.S. deaths passed 22,000. So as we hunker down and shelter in place it becomes a recurring question in many of our minds as to when will this all be over? So things can return to whatever normal for you is. Well, the answer to that may not be so easy to determine but we can look at the past to create conjecture about the future.
In the 1918–1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months. Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. From September to November 1918, a second more deadly wave spread globally killing many more than the first wave. A third wave occurred in early 1919. Scientists cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918–1919, which occurred in the spring-summer, summer-fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to the flu virus being spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Are we now facing such an event? The world was in the midst of a war in Europe in 1918 that helped to promote infection in the early stages of the flu virus but there are many questions about how and why there were successive waves. I am not a scientist nor do I hold any doctorates, I am a regular American with the ability to read and write to whatever degree. With that being said as I examine the past and listen to the people with doctorates and scientists I fear we are in for a rather long period of the pandemic that will most likely ebb and flow until it burns itself out. Life will be forever marred and it will be looked upon as life before Covid19 and after Covid19.
We will witness the restructuring of many industries and a revolution of technological support systems to help cope with the crisis. Of the 17 million jobs lost and more to come, there is no way to predict how many of the people who become job displaced during the pandemic will return to work when we recover from the critical measures being taken by the government and industry. This is a time of certain uncertainty and from day to day we see more and more of what we have never seen before. It will certainly not be a rose-colored outcome, there will be long-lasting change and much of it for the worst. The original and focus of the essay is "How long will it (the contagious period of the Covid19 virus) last and when will things return to normalcy? Odds are, at least a year and in that year how many things will change so drastically and affects the livelihood change causes challenges so drastic that all of those involved begin to incite and instigate unrest in the peer group they circulate within and the same dynamic is repeated layer upon layer? Something about all of what is happening feels calculated. Probably spit out of one of those quantum computers with advanced AI. And its long-range goal is to drive the society quickly into the coup de ta of corporations to usurp the power of the workers by replacing them with robots and Kiosks. undoubtedly a new form of economic lifestyles of Americans will by force be changed willingly and how resources are exchanged because the present money system and way of doing business will create the largest gap between the rich and the poor witnessed since serfdom was in practice. Until my next editorial, I ask that you stay at least six feet from anyone in public and wash your hands, please. The dragon has drawn and exhaled that hot fiya !!! I write because I can. [Christar4]

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